October Trip to Alaska

[flyingredyeti]

Hello everyone. I am low-time pilot ( < 200hrs), and A&P in training, currently working on purchasing a Cessna 170B that lives in Colorado. If the sale goes through, I would fly her up to Anchorage in mid-late October. The owner has offered to fly up with me if I cover all costs. As an alternative, I am offering the second seat to a pilot that would be interested in helping with trip planning and time at the stick. I ask that you cover your own costs, and share fuel costs based on flight time (i.e. if I fly more, I pay proportionately more for fuel). In return, you'll get to take part in flying to Alaska in a gorgeous, 180 horsepower 170B , and all that entails. Return flights from Anchorage to Denver are currently being offered for less than 300.00. I will plan on a trip of one week or less, although I will admit have yet not fully fleshed out the flight planning. This is still a work in progress, but if you have any questions, please respond to this post and I will answer as quickly as possible.

[beaverbill]

The flight up the highway can be a very nice trip. However, if you have any flexibility in the timing of the flight, you may want to consider a little earlier in the Fall. Say, mid September or earlier if you can arrange it. Longer daylight hours for sure and likely better weather. And not likely to need to preheat the engine before the first departure of each day. Just some things worth considering.
Bill

[flyingredyeti]

Thanks for that Bill, but September won't be possible for me. As for weather, I can see precipitation increasing, but once we start heading north the drop in temperatures we get up here gives a substantial boost to air density, leading to higher performance overall. On the other hand, I know that Anchorage does not get quite as cold as Fairbanks even in the dead of winter, and last October was unusually warm and dry.

[canav8]

It appears this is a financial constraint flight and earlier is probably not in the picture to take advantage of the suggestions of BeaverBill. It sounds like he needs to re plan his flight timeline to spring and not fall next year. I cannot help but feel this prospective owners plight but he has far more flight planning to take care of for a successful flight. JMO

[flyboy122]

This is unsolicited advice, so feel free to ignore it....

In my experience accidents are never just one thing. It's not "ran out of gas" or "flew into a cloud". Instead it's usually a chain of things. "Flying at night, over unfamiliar area, ATC vectored you around Class B instead of direct, and ran out of gas looking for airport" or "Have to be home for work tomorrow, weather moving in faster than expected, Ipad cutting in and out again, and flew into a cloud trying to get map working". I can handle an engine failure. But I can't handle an engine failure on takeoff from short runway in the middle of town at night with a full load.

Every time I fly I evaluate all the conditions, and look to see if they are adding up to a potential accident chain. If I see a potential accident chain (such as in the above example: short runway, no place to land, no viz at night, and full load) I look for ways to break that chain. For example maybe I choose the longer runway that ends in a nice big field away from town even though it's not into the wind. Or maybe I wait for daylight. You'll never eliminate all the links. The goal is to break the chain into manageable chunks.

When I look at your proposed flight, I see the following: Low time pilot, unknown co-pilot, new (to you) airplane, relatively inhospitable terrain, cold weather, and limited daylight. That is way to many links! I would highly, highly recommend you look at a way to break that chain. (I'd go at a different time of year if was me, but it isn't.)

This advice is worth what you've paid for it, which was nothing. However I will note I damn near paid with my life for it, so it's worth that to me!

DEM

[blueldr]

The smooth success of this project, as planned, sounds too jiffy to me.

[beaverbill]

PM sent.
Bill

[Bruce Fenstermacher]

DEM, I think you have given sage advice. And I think with it in mind and due caution the proposed flight could be done safely. I think the process for a safe outcome whether they ever depart on this flight as planned has started.

[flyboy122]

And I think with it in mind and due caution the proposed flight could be done safely.

Agreed. Lotsa ways to break that accident chain!

DEM

[pdb]

I have to second Beaverbill's comments about late Oct weather and daylight. The flight will not be impossible but it likely will incur quite a bit more hassle than an earlier fall transit. Aircraft performance due to cooler weather is beside the point. Weather is the issue.

Some places like Watson Lake have very limited facilities for transient aircraft. That means you had better bring wing and engine covers and be very self sufficient (for things like preheat which you will likely have to use) especially if you get stuck some place like Burwash when the weather goes south. Don't be that guy who has to rely on the good nature of strangers to bail you out of an otherwise foreseable situation.

Thanks for that Bill, but September won't be possible for me. As for weather, I can see precipitation increasing, but once we start heading north the drop in temperatures we get up here gives a substantial boost to air density, leading to higher performance overall. On the other hand, I know that Anchorage does not get quite as cold as Fairbanks even in the dead of winter, and last October was unusually warm and dry.

[flyingredyeti]

Every response on here so far has made a legitimate point.
-Every accident is a chain of events: agreed.
-Every accident has the potential to be avoided by breaking any of the linking factors in the chain: agreed.
-Less daylight in October: agreed (in fact, living in Fairbanks, I likely have a better idea than most on here what that means in the north).
-Limited infrastructure along the route: agreed.
-The trip, as planned, sounds questionable: agreed.
-Flying cross-country with an unfamiliar pilot = potential problems: agreed

Counter points:
-The trip is not yet planned, I am at the beginning of planning it, and I've 6 months to do so.
-I am a low-time pilot, but all of my current flight time, in addition to what I will accrue up until October, has been in the interior of Alaska, meaning rugged, mountainous terrain with very little infrastructure. The majority of this time has been between September and March, meaning shorter, colder days, sometimes with daytime flight windows of <6 hours
-Flying extended cross-country with a familiar pilot may also equal potential problems. I'm looking for an experienced pilot with current medical, solid planning skills, and safe habits.
-PPPPPP

However, I do not take lightly anything mentioned thus far. I appreciate the concerns and advice voiced here. Keep it coming, I'd like to hear more. Especially from anyone who's made the trip.

[hilltop170]

All of the previous comments are valid and should be carefully considered. However, there is no reason the trip cannot be completed according to your schedule unless the weather closes in completely, which is not likely. It might take more than 5 days though so you should schedule in some extra time just in case. I have made the trip between Alaska and the Lower 48 in every month of the year and as long as good preparations are made, good decisions are made, and good judgement is used the flight can be safely made. Yes, flying across Canada can be more risky and possibly more difficult than in the Lower 48. The rewards can be much greater as well. If you want to visit about the trip, PM me with your phone number and I will be more than happy to discuss it.

[daedaluscan]

Lots of good advice, but I agree that this can be done safely by a low time pilot with the right attitude. Its called adventure!

I think the probable risk is delay. Time to spare, go by air.

[flyingredyeti]

Thanks again for the positive replies, especially to Bill & Hilltop for your offers. This trip, as any other, can only be made safely with the right mindset and proper planning. Having a wife and children always waiting for me at home, I take all precautions to ensure I arrive home & land safely.

[flyingredyeti]

Well, I found me a seasoned partner for the flight. Thanks all. Now to find some covers. . .I'll post in another board.